Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder

Taleb outlines the misconception that randomness is inherently a negative concept, arguing that, in reality, eliminating randomness actually increases fragility. For instance, artisanal careers and small businesses benefit from variability because the changes essentially force them to adapt and learn from their environment. In this chapter, Taleb also explores the concept of small mistakes resulting in valuable information for self-employed individuals, and the importance of focusing on techne (crafts and know-how) rather than episteme (book knowledge). Additionally, he cautions against mistaking the absence of evidence for evidence of absence, as he highlights the differences between Mediocristan and Extremistan, where risk is in the future, not in the past.

Taleb argues that variations act as purges, like small forest fires that periodically cleanse the system of the most flammable material. The problem with artificially suppressed volatility is that it tends to make the system extremely fragile, without exhibiting any visible risks. Ancient societies, for instance, developed hidden and sophisticated ways and tricks to exploit randomness, which were integrated into divinations. However, modernity corresponds to the systematic extraction of humans from their randomness-laden ecology, physical and social, even epistemological. Taleb concludes the chapter with the idea that “modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility” (109).